On case-fatality rate: review and hypothesis.
Identifieur interne : 001C90 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 001C89; suivant : 001C91On case-fatality rate: review and hypothesis.
Auteurs : Hiroshi Yoshikura [Japon]Source :
- Japanese journal of infectious diseases [ 1884-2836 ] ; 2012.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- mortalité : Maladies virales.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine, Maladies virales, Mexique, Syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère.
- Facteurs temps, Humains, Modèles statistiques, Épidémies.
- Wicri :
- geographic : Mexique.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : Mexico.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, Virus Diseases.
- mortality : Virus Diseases.
- Epidemics, Humans, Models, Statistical, Time Factors.
Abstract
The relationship between log cumulative number of patients (X) and that of deaths (Y) in an epidemic follows the equation logY = klogX - klogN(0), where k is a constant determining the slope and N(0) is the value of X when Y = 1. Diseases with k = 1 are Ebola hemorrhagic fever, avian influenza H5N1, cholera, and hand, foot, and mouth disease; those with k > 1 are the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in countries other than Mexico and the SARS epidemic in some countries; and those with k < 1 include the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in Mexico. Epidemics with k > 1 can be simulated by postulating two subpopulations (normal population [NP] and vulnerable population [VP]), where the epidemic proceeds at higher speed and at higher mortality in VP than in NP. Epidemics with k < 1 can be simulated by postulating coexisting high virulence virus (HVV) and low virulence virus (LVV), with the former being propagated at slower speed and with a higher mortality rate than the latter. An epidemic with k > 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of subpopulations NP or VP from the total population (f) and NP- or VP-specific patient multiplication (M) and mortality (D) rates. An epidemic with k < 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of HVV- or LVV-infected human populations (f), and HVV- or LVV-specific M and D.
DOI: 10.7883/yoken.65.279
PubMed: 22814148
Affiliations:
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Le document en format XML
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Diseases with k = 1 are Ebola hemorrhagic fever, avian influenza H5N1, cholera, and hand, foot, and mouth disease; those with k > 1 are the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in countries other than Mexico and the SARS epidemic in some countries; and those with k < 1 include the influenza H1N1 2009 pandemic in Mexico. Epidemics with k > 1 can be simulated by postulating two subpopulations (normal population [NP] and vulnerable population [VP]), where the epidemic proceeds at higher speed and at higher mortality in VP than in NP. Epidemics with k < 1 can be simulated by postulating coexisting high virulence virus (HVV) and low virulence virus (LVV), with the former being propagated at slower speed and with a higher mortality rate than the latter. An epidemic with k > 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of subpopulations NP or VP from the total population (f) and NP- or VP-specific patient multiplication (M) and mortality (D) rates. An epidemic with k < 1 was simulated using parameters that are fractions of HVV- or LVV-infected human populations (f), and HVV- or LVV-specific M and D.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Japon</li></country><region><li>Région de Kantō</li></region><settlement><li>Tokyo</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Japon"><region name="Région de Kantō"><name sortKey="Yoshikura, Hiroshi" sort="Yoshikura, Hiroshi" uniqKey="Yoshikura H" first="Hiroshi" last="Yoshikura">Hiroshi Yoshikura</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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